2020 Tarawera Ultramarathon Preview | My Picks to Win
by Chase Parnell — February 4, 2020 — đź“·: Kurt Matthews
The second Ultra-Trail World Tour (UTWT) race of 2020 is the Tarawera Ultramarathon, which takes place this weekend in New Zealand. For those who care, the UTWT has four different race categories: In descending order of importance: Series Bonus, Series, Pro, and Challenger. A first place finish at a Series Bonus race (Transgrancanaria, UTMB) gives you the highest possible points you can receive at an UTWT event. Your top two performances of the year create your annual ranking.
The Tarawera 102k is categorized as a “pro” event so it carries a little less clout from a rankings perspective but it will still be a very competitive field with a lot of interesting storylines. And honestly, I don’t know that the elites competing at Tarawera care all that much yet about UTWT rankings anyways. A win at an UTWT event provides a certain level of prestige but I don’t think they’re building their race calendars around climbing this particular ranking system. This may change in the future as UTWT further incentivizes ($$$) them to do so.
Tarawera is a course that favors the runners over the mountain athletes. The 102k has 10,134 feet of gain (99 feet per kilometer) and the 100 miler is a little stouter with 17,946 (111 feet per kilometer). Each course has long stretches of runnable terrain where runners can open it up and get into a rhythm. It’s no surprise that runners like Sage Canaday, Jim Walmsley and Camille Herron have performed very well here.
Alright, enough beating around the bush. Here are my picks:
Tarawera 102k Women’s Champion — Manuela Soccol (New Balance)
This was probably the toughest race for me to pick and I’ll be honest, Manuela was a total unknown to me prior to reviewing the list of elite entries. While Soccol, of Belgium, is relatively inexperienced on the trail and ultra scene, she’s a 2:37 marathoner. She made the Rio Olympic team in the marathon in 2016 and the Doha World Championship team in 2019. That tells me she has wheels and she’s a world class competitor. I like that she was competing at an elite level in the marathon as recently as Doha (October 2019) where, despite horrendously hot conditions that caused a large proportion of the field to drop out, she showed some ultra spirit by finishing the race as the 31st fastest marathoner in the world. Manuela then quickly transitioned to the trails and won the UTWT Cappadocia 63k event just a few weeks later, beating Jo Meek of Britain (2nd at CCC in 2016) by 11 minutes.
I really wanted to go with Anne-Marie Madden (Salomon) of Canada but I just don’t know that she has the speed for a course like Tarawera. She had a super solid 2019 with a third place finish at Way Too Cool and 2nd at The North Face 50 San Francisco, but in general, it seems she’s performed the best on courses with more climbing. This will also be the longest race of her career (for Soccol too) and her first ultra of 2020. And while she’s finished very high at competitive events, she hasn’t nabbed that big WIN yet to show she’s ready to top the podium at an UTWT race.
Another contender is Australian Lucy Bartholomew (Salomon) who blew us all away with her 3rd place finish at the 2018 Western States 100 at the age of 22. I don’t know the entire story, but it sounds like things caught up to her a little in 2019. In looking at her Strava, her recent training has been solid with a nice mix of running, biking, and swimming, but I don’t now that she’s quite yet re-built the temple after doing lots and lots of racing from 2016-2018. However, as an Aussie, there’s no doubt that she’ll be a fan favorite so she’ll have that as an added boost to keep her moving along. She’s got the talent no doubt, I think it’s more a matter of whether or not she’s re-stoked the engine enough for a massive effort.
Finally, we can’t sleep on Nicole Bitter who’s coming off a nice 4th place finish at JFK 50 in November. She had a top 10 finish at Western States in 2019 and is a perennial contender in every race she enters. It can’t hurt to be married to the now 100 mile world record holder either. If she’s picked up on any of that juju, she might shock us with a win.
Tarawera 102k Men’s Champion — Sage Canaday
First of all, in my opinion, this is the most competitive race of the event. Top contenders include Sage, Patrick Reagan, Zach Bitter, Tom Evans, Reece Edwards, and Ryan Bak.Â
Here’s why I’m going with Sage: (1) He won the race in 2013 and 2014 so he has a good mental relationship with the event and the course obviously suits him well. Sure, sure, it’s been six years since his last win here and almost three years since his last major win (Lake Sonoma 2017), but I still think Sage is every bit as strong as he’s ever been. (2) He made the smart decision to skip the Houston Marathon in January when he realized his road legs weren’t coming around as quickly as he needed them to. Instead, he took that speed that he developed and rolled it into Tarawera-specific training. (3) He didn’t race anything real long in 2019 so he likely isn’t dealing with that deep fatigue that some of the others may be experiencing. (4) He’s hungry for a big win. And while I’m not saying the competition is soft by any means, without any of the Coconino Cowboys in attendance, he might have picked the right year to get it done.
That said, he’ll be surrounded early with a lot of really tough dudes. My take is that Pat Reagan, unfortunately, has got to be a little toasted. With killer races at Javelina Jundred in October and Brazos Bend 100 in December, I’m not sure he had quite enough time to adequately recover and then train with specificity for Tarawera.
Bitter could very well win this race. As the new minted 100 mile world record holder, he’s got to be coming in with confidence. He also toughed out a close win at the San Diego 100 in 2019 so you can’t really categorize him as a one-trick pony. He ran strong at JFK and almost ran down young gun Seth Ruhling for the win, and yet despite getting 2nd, he still ran the 8th fastest time ever on the course! So while he is coming off a stellar year (#2 on UltraRunning Mag’s Ultrarunner of the Year rankings), I still believe this race is uniquely suited for Sage’s skillset, mainly his power and ability to run really fast on moderate climbs.
Tom Evans is a beast. He was 3rd at both Western States and Lake Sonoma in 2019 so the guy can definitely run, but he’s traditionally performed the best I believe on mountainous courses. Look for him to be right there in the mix towards the end. It looks like last year’s winner, Australian Reece Edwards, has been cramming a bit so I couldn’t really contemplate a repeat victory for him despite the fact that he’ll have the crowd on his side. Finally, Ryan Bak of Bend, Oregon (whoop whoop!) is toeing the line. He seems to be the dark horse in a lot of races because he doesn’t race a ton and you never quite know what to expect. He’s a crazy talented runner with 13:38 5k and 2:14 marathon PRs, and he’s either won or finished second at Chuckanut, Lake Sonoma, and Way Too Cool. But he just hasn’t quite put it together at anything longer than a 50 miler. Tarawera suits him well and maybe this’ll be the race where he bridges the gap to the longer ultras, but I couldn’t pick him over Sage, who has had such great success at this race.
Tarawera 100 Miler Women’s Champion — Cat Bradley
Cat’s coming off a solid 2nd place at the 2019 Leadville and what appears to be a pretty great last couple months of training. She did get the flu before Bandera 100k early last month but after taking a tough DNF there, she’s taken that fitness and built up nicely for Tarawera. In my opinion, she’s the class of the field and while anything can happen in 100 milers, I’d be pretty surprised if she doesn’t walk away with a win. That said, Tarawera is such a huge event now. In scrolling through the entry list, there are just so many names I don’t recognize, and with 38 different countries represented, it’s certainly possible there could be a sleeper in there somewhere.
Tarawera 100 Miler Men’s Champion — Brendan Davies
Brendan has been putting in the work. I’m predicting a late charge where his strength and lifetime base will have time to shine. While he’s getting up in age (43), he won the Ultra Trail Australia 100k in 2018 and was third at Javelina Jundred in 2017 in a time of 14:04. He does a ton of training with his coaching athletes so his paces vary greatly from run to run, but he still drops his tempos and shorter races down to 5:30 per mile or so. I’m predicting his experience and finishing strength will get him the win.
Alright, that’s it folks. I hope at the very least I’ve peaked your interest to tune in and follow along this Friday/Saturday. As far as I can tell, the best way to follow along is by downloading the Tarawera race app on your smartphone. Just search Tarawera and you’ll find it. I’ll be tweeting out some live results from our twitter handle @treelinej so make sure to give us a follow as well. Rotorua, New Zealand is 21 hours ahead of us so the Saturday race (for them) will actually be going down in the USA on Friday and into the early morning hours of Saturday for the 100 miler.
Finally, a word from the wise for all you Americans going down to toe the line. I learned from one of our esteemed Patreon supporters, Malcolm Webb, that in New Zealand, the word “bonk” means …sexual relations. So use caution late in the race when you run into an aid station and declare to the volunteers that you’re totally bonking right now. You will either be greeted with a stifled laugh or pepper spray.
Best of luck to all the runners! Let me know what you think of my picks in the comments below and feel free to throw out your own. Predictions are all part of the fun. No matter what happens, it should be an exciting race and we’ll see how things shake out.
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I couldn’t find the prize money list on the race website. Any insights on prizing?https://www.taraweraultra.co.nz/
I don’t believe there is any prize money for Tarawera!
Seems Tom Evans is continuing to improve. Sage struggled but did beat Patrick by 1 minute.