2021 Western States Storylines to Follow!
by Chase Parnell — June 11, 2021 — 📸: Tonya Perme
Too soon to start hyping Western States? No, no way. Never. It’s been relatively quiet out there, the contenders with podium dreams are all just now wrapping up their respective training blocks and starting their sweet but oftentimes unsettling taper phase, hoping they’ve done enough work to maximize their race day success. Instead of doing a runner-by-runner preview of the entire elite field like I did for the golden ticket races (leaving that to iRunfar), I wanted to touch on what I consider to be some of the most interesting storylines to follow as we approach the big dance.
The goal is to hit each one with a single paragraph and to provide some resources that you can follow up on as time allows. If there’s anything I’ve learned in following running (or sports generally) it’s that the more you know and understand going into an event, the more fun and impactful an experience you’ll have on race day. For example, I’m not trying to exploit a sensitive subject, but Eric Senseman was very open about losing his father in 2020 in this Pyllars podcast episode. I didn’t know that had happened when I followed his race at Black Canyon 100k, which was just a few months after his dad’s passing. But now that I know that, sheesh, it just adds a layer of sentiment to anything he accomplishes. So that’s what I’m wanting to do here with this article, just add a layer of depth, a few storylines that will make June 26th a little more nuanced and meaningful.
Okay, without further adieu, here are some of the most exciting storylines leading into the 2021 Western States Endurance Run. The Treeline crew will be on-course to watch it all unfold and we couldn’t be more excited.
Jim Walmsley a Wild Card?
The two-time winner of Western States has gone silent. Nothing on Strava, nothing on the socials. There were murmurings that he may have been injured and contemplating not running but that’s all hearsay and not to be trusted. Unless we hear that from the horse’s mouth, I have to believe that his radio silence is just him being ultra-focused on his training. Personally, I think he’s out there putting in one of his epic six week Walmsley blocks that no one else could touch from a volume perspective. The only beta I have is from Jim’s friends posting on social media; Dakota Jones recently posted about Jim being up in Bozeman and before that there was something from Chris Vargo. Jim of course surprised us all by not running a golden ticket race and securing a sponsor entry instead. This allowed him to better recover from his 100k world record attempt at the Hoka Project Carbon X2 and set himself up for success at Western States. What threw me off was his training in late April and early May. It just didn’t look like a typical Walmsley progression; sporadic running and lots of cycling. Now of course Jim is super smart and he’s likely taking into account his entire year’s goals and plans and was maybe just allocating some downtime before ramping up for Western and UTMB. This is a little reminiscent of his build-up to the 2020 Olympic Trials. He was running in the Canyon and doing all kinds of things and then BOOM, two months out he was hitting the track and fine-tuning for the marathon. But that time he was logging huge miles beforehand so this is a little different. Agh! Wrapping my mind in circles over here. Nevertheless, I totally respect Jim going silent and I can see the benefit for him, it just makes it harder to predict what’ll go down on race day. Nothing wrong with adding a little spice and expectation, I just hope he’s healthy and ready to leapfrog all the two-time winners and nab himself a third cougar. Up up up!
Clare Gallagher, Brittany Peterson Rematch
In 2019 we had one of the most exciting battles in Western States history. Clare and Brittany were side by side leaving the Pointed Rocks aid station at mile 94.3. Apparently Clare put on a massive surge and was able to create a gap after Brittany had worked so hard to catch Clare in those final miles. Usually it doesn’t work out like that. If you get caught late in a 100, it’s usually the death knell for the prior leader. But that wasn’t the case here; Clare was caught but was able to gather herself and finish like a boss! I enjoyed re-listening to these post-race iRunfar interviews with Clare and Brittany. They ended up finishing in the second and fourth fastest times ever in the race’s 40 year history. From what I can tell, they are both training well and ready to let it rip again this year. Brittany had an incredible performance earlier this year, winning the super-competitive Black Canyon 100k back in February and has just been training away ever since! Check out her recent 52 mile long run on the Western States course. Locked and loaded. Clare’s build up is a little more cryptic with a 4th place finish at the Desert Rats 50k in May and a win at the Scout Mountain 21 miler on June 5th. Her training on Strava looks solid with really steady volume from mid-February on. You can tell she’s a SWAP athlete with her six days a week routine. I don’t know, could Peterson be a little overcooked and Clare just right? Or did Peterson do exactly what she needed to absolutely nail it this time around? This is going to be exciting! Rooting for them both!
My Money’s on Tim Tollefson
With Jim being a little bit more of an unknown than in years prior, the door is open for another one of the titans of our sport to slip in and nab a win. Tim, Jim, Jared Hazen, Anthony Costales, Hayden Hawks, Tyler Green and Max King are the guys I’m thinking will really be in the mix, but my gut is telling me Tim might just take this one. It always seemed a little strange to me that he developed such a UTMB niche. I mean, he’s the most consistently high-performing American male over there so it makes sense in that regard, but he’s also a guy who for all intents and purposes should be able to crush a race like Western States too. He’s a California boy, he went to Rocklin High School just down the road from Auburn, he grew up on these trails, and he comes from a traditional distance running background with 2:18 marathon speed. His training on Strava looks incredible; big volume, high quality, lots of specificity. His biggest week was 117 miles with 18,000 feet of vert and I like his long gradual taper. And the last data point that put me over the edge was Tim’s win at the Pioneer Spirit 50 miler (partially on the Western States course) early in 2020 where he edged out Max King and Matt Daniels for the win. The guy won Javelina 100, he won Lavaredo, he won Ultra-Trail Australia; he’s just a world class ultrarunner and it’s pretty damn exciting that he’s finally toeing the line at Western States.
How Many Flagstaffers in Top Ten?
There is a scenario on the men’s side of the race where five of the top ten finishers are from Flagstaff, Arizona. And it’s not just the Coconino Cowboys anymore; it seems like each year there’s another top tier ultrarunner putting down roots there. Check out this list of top ten potentials: Jim Walmsley, Jared Hazen, Stephen Kersh, Jeff Browning, Eric Senseman. Jim and Jared have a chance of going 1-2 again, Kersh and Browning were 7th and 9th respectively in 2019, and Senseman is coming off a really great Black Canyon 100k 2nd place finish. There doesn’t appear to be the same density of highly competitive ultrarunning women in Flagstaff yet but I’m sure it’s only a matter of time. To me, it really feels like Flagstaff and Salt Lake City are starting to separate as the powerhouse hubs right now. The more I think about it, it might be because there aren’t as many hubs within those states. In Colorado, you have top-tier runners in Boulder of course but also sprinkled around the state. In Oregon, they’re divided between Portland, Ashland, and Bend. It seems like Flagstaff is THE spot in Arizona, which helps in creating a unified community. Only the Bitters are crazy enough to live and train in Phoenix. Anyways, it’ll be interesting to see if they can really place five in the top 10!
The Evolution of Tyler Green
I think for a long time Tyler Green was one of those fly under the radar guys. He was the dark horse pick in many a competitive ultra. That’s no longer the case. He’s done the work and consistently improved to a level where anytime he toes the line he has a chance to win and should be in the discussion as one of the true favorites. Some guys enter the sport with a big splash and some slowly and steadily tap into their potential. Tyler is definitely the latter and yet I can’t quite put my finger on why he’s improving so much. He doesn’t seem to log a ton of miles, he does a lot of running in flatland Portland proper, and his workouts always seem to be just woven into his runs so it’s a little hard to tell what he’s doing. Part of his success I think is that he’s pretty analytical in everything he does. He approaches projects with a fresh perspective and looks for unique angles instead of relying on how it’s all been done before. And he hasn’t rushed his trajectory, he knows he’s getting better and better, that things are working, and he has the emotional maturity to let it come to him. I also think Tyler was sort of getting unfairly pigeon-holed as an FKT specialist but really he had a great 2019 racing season, winning the Bandera 100k and Cascade Crest 100 miler, and he finished second to only Patrick Reagan at Javelina 100. And then earlier this year of course he elevated once again, taking the win at Black Canyon 100k against a very competitive field. I think if Tyler plays his cards right, he’ll run Western States similarly. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s back in 15th-20th place at 50k and then goes on to pick people off one by one. I don’t know if that strategy can put him in the position to win the whole race, but it might be enough to run his way into top five or maybe even top three.
International Women’s Field is STRONG
Two of the top three women at the Canyons 100k golden ticket race were international. Beth Pascall of the UK won by a large margin and Andrey Tanguy of France finished 3rd. Both of these women have been living and training in the US during their dedicated build to Western States. But that’s just the tip of the iceberg really. We also have Ragna Debats, the Spanish phenom with wins at CCC, Transvulcania, and Marathon des Sables. On paper, she has to have the best resume in the entire field. And then we have Ruth Croft of New Zealand who has also been more of a euro-centric mountain runner but has adjusted her training and racing schedule this year to maximize her day at Western. She started out her year with an overall win at the Tarawera 100k in February and then actually transitioned to marathon training, which will likely pay dividends on a course like Western States; lots of very runnable terrain. Croft ran 32:42 on a 200m short 10k road race and also won the Ultra Trail Australia 50k in May. She seems ready to tear it up! And lastly of course there’s Emily Hawgood of Zimbabwe, who has been living in the USA for so long it feels weird to place her in the international camp, but she’ll also be out there taking her shot at the win. She had a burly spring with three 100k golden ticket races and a thesis defense to boot. But hey, you never know what can happen out there. It’s going to be a ton of fun to see how these ladies stack up against the top Americans. Western States is really becoming a world-class field.
Max King is Back!
It’s been seven years since Max last ran Western States, finishing 4th behind Rob Krar, Seth Swanson, and Dylan Bowman after having led most of the race. As arguably the most decorated multi-disciplined runner ever, it’s no secret that the 100 mile distance is the one that’s got away for Max. But here’s the thing, guys like Max don’t quit! He knows what a 100 mile win at a marquee event would mean. And if I’m being honest, I think he wants to shut up people like me who bring up the fact that he hasn’t won a 100, because look at everything else he’s done for Christ’s sake. And why not pick the most competitive 100 miler in the country to try? Max finished 8th at the 2016 Leadville 100 where similar to Western States, he faded late. He has mentioned in interviews how difficult it is to actually run slow early on in a 100. There’s no doubt though that if he nails the pacing, he could be in contention for the win. He ran a very impressive race at the Canyons 100k to finish second to Anthony Costales after going off course for a bit and from the looks of his training, he seems healthy and fit and ready to go. In a sport that really, and maybe unfairly, glorifies the 100 mile distance, this is a great opportunity for Max to use his experience and hopefully land on (or maybe even on top of) the podium and get the monkey off his back. It’d be pretty cool to bring a cougar back to Bend. No pressure.
The Treeline Dark Horse Picks
Alex Nichols still feels a little bit like a dark horse despite all his incredible success over the years. He has the talent to win the entire race. Anything can happen. He has a bunch of domestic and international short-course wins, he won his debut 100 in 2016 at Run Rabbit Run (still the third fastest time ever on that course) and he’s already had a magical day at Western States, finishing 2nd in 2017. He’s not a loud personality but if you read any of his columns on iRunfar or listen to his podcast interviews, he knows how to train and has an acute sense of what it takes to perform at the highest levels. He’s also one of the most consistent runners out there and hardly ever takes days off. Really great looking build on Strava and from his comment on a recent 40 mile Western States simulator run, he said, “I feel much stronger than I was in 2017.” Here’s a thought, maybe he can pick up Scott Running teammate Cody Lind and really do some damage as a pair. Similar humble demeanors, both great runners. Can’t wait!
On the women’s side, Katie Asmuth is someone that could really surprise people. If you look at her ultrasignup, she hasn’t finished lower than 2nd place since early 2018! She won the Bandera 100k in January of this year so she clearly has some wheels on the flats. She followed that up with a win at the Macdonald Forest 50k in May where she showed off her engine on the climbs. Check out the Strava data on her win there; 7:21 GAP pace average, 4h 36m for a 50k with almost 6,700 feet of climbing! Beast. Since that win she’s been up at Mammoth Lakes running hard, she went to the Western States training camp so she leveled up her familiarity with the course, and it doesn’t hurt that she also recently signed a pro contract with Saucony. Lots of good ju-ju happening for her. Watch out for a late charge from Asmuth, I’m thinking she’ll be right there in the mix.
Alright, there you have it! Hope this added a little context to the 2021 Western States narrative for you. There are so many other stories I could have included so I apologize if these selections didn’t touch on something major. Looking back, this is probably a little Oregon-centric with my odes to Tyler Green and Max King, but hey, that’s where I live so I naturally follow their running careers a little closer than others. Feel free to spotlight someone in the comments below! Would love to hear about more exciting storylines. Best of luck to everyone toeing the line out there. Can’t wait to see it all go down in person!
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Don’t count Jorge out…!!!
Great Race Preview!
I saw Jim, Jared and Eric flying through the Grand Canyon heading up South Kaibab on May 12. Jim looked like he was floating, Jared looked pretty good behind and Eric was well behind and looking a bit beat up .