Bend MUT Runners Fly South for 2019 Cal Int’l Marathon | Training Profiles & Predictions.
by Chase Parnell — December 3, 2019
Alright folks, after my last post about childhood memories, addiction, anxiety and some other very light topics, I’m ready to return to our normal programming of running content aimed at inflaming egos and stoking meaningless chatter. Here we go:
There is a fine contingent of MUT (“Mountain/Ultra/Trail”) runners from Bend, Oregon (myself included) heading to CIM to see what these trail legs can do for us. In this post I’ll be taking a look into the build-ups of Max King, Ryan Kaiser, Colton Gale, and myself. I would have also included Bend local and 2019 beer mile world champion, Allison Morgan (making her marathon debut), but she’s not on Strava so I couldn’t stalk her training. But keep an eye out for her, she has a 1:13:10 half marathon PR so an OTQ (“Olympic Trials Qualifier”) of sub-2:45 should definitely be within reach.
One element I wanted to mention, which applies to all us Bendites, is that we do live in a mountain town and as such we are prone to winter weather. We were having an absolutely killer fall (unless you ski and want early snow), trails were dry, and temperatures were warm and pleasant for training. But that all ended on November 26, about two weeks before CIM. It’s not a huge deal because the bulk of our training was done, but it has definitely affected us and most of our final speed work had to be done inside on treadmills. Everything is still covered and there’s really nowhere to go for fast outdoor running.
Finally, it goes without saying that I’m kind of a fanboy of all these guys, as I am of anyone at their level. I’m rooting for them all and hope all their wildest dreams come true. See you at the start line!
Max King
Introduction & Pedigree: Max is the undisputed King of Bend and one of the best runners in the country for distances up to 100k. What makes Max unique is his versatility. When he’s healthy and fit, he can compete with the best of the best in a variety of disciplines. Despite the fact that Max is coming off an injury and has had an abbreviated build-up, I have no doubt he’ll throw down and dig deep come Sunday. And correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe Max has competed in every Olympic Trials since 2008 so this would make four in a row if he gets the qualifier this weekend. No pressure.
My Prediction: 2:17:56 for OTQ
Miles ran so far in 2019: 2,589
Peak mileage for one week during buildup: 84 miles
Marathon PR: 2:14 – (Houston Marathon, 2012)
Keystone Workout: Nov. 22 — 10 by mile. Optimistic title there.
Ryan Kaiser
Introduction & Pedigree: Most of you likely know Kaiser. He too is a versatile runner, performing well on courses like Western States (11th in 2015) and Hardrock (5th in 2016). He has the 4th fastest time ever on the Waldo 100k course (behind only Laney, Mackey, & Skaggs), and he has wins at races such as IMTUF 100, Elkhorn Crest 50 miler, Smith Rock Ascent 50k, and many others. I had the pleasure of joining Ryan on three speed sessions in our buildup to CIM. The dude is fit. He really needed someone a lot faster than me pushing him, but I like to think that I at least got him out the door and intentionally running hard. He seems to know his limits really well and has an ability to push hard, yet make it look effortless. I’m pretty amped to see how things shake out for him. He’s also a hard-working attorney and father of three young kids so extra props for getting this fit. I wouldn’t want to be trying to outrun Ryan in the last few miles. I’m predicting he closes well.
My Prediction: 2:28:52
Miles ran in 2019: 2,544
Peak mileage for one week during buildup: 88 miles
Marathon PR: 2:35 – (Boston, 2016)
Keystone Workout: Nov. 20 — 7 mile treadmill tempo with cut-down. #oldmanstrength
Colton Gale
Introduction & Pedigree: If you don’t know Colton, you probably will sooner or later. He’s had wins at Siskiyou Outback 100k, Wild Outback 55k, Run the Rock 50 miler, and others. He hasn’t quite knocked an A-level race out of the park yet to put him on everyone’s radar, but his time is coming. He had an awesome marathon build-up and he’s been working closely with coach Ryan Ghelfi to prepare for CIM. For whatever reason, Colton seems to be a guy who is still discovering his full potential and continues to make significant gains in performance instead of plateauing. Word is he might even be taking a swing at the OTQ of sub 2:19 but he says the stars will have to align perfectly for that to happen.
My Prediction: 2:26:45
Miles ran in 2019: 2,261
Peak Mileage for one week during buildup: 95 miles
Marathon PR: 2:32 – (CIM, 2017)
Keystone Workout: Nov. 10 — 24 mile long run with two 6-mile integrated tempos.
Yours Truly
My Prediction: 2:34:59 (more of a goal actually)
Miles ran in 2019: 2,375
Peak Mileage for one week during buildup: 90 miles
Marathon PR: 2:35 – (Redding Marathon, 2012)
Keystone Workout: Nov. 23 — 24 mile progression run
This should be fun! For me, this is my first big marathon from a number of participants perspective. Not only are there over 12,000 runners, it’s a super competitive marathon too, especially this year with CIM being one of the last chances for the studs out there to get a qualifier for the February 2020 trials in Atlanta. Side note: does anyone want to pay me to fly out for the trials and cover it? Anyone? Bueller? Bueller? Damn, I really want to be at that race! Road trip?
One thing I need to keep in mind is that even if I set a PR and hit my reach goal of 2:34:59, going off last year’s results, that time would earn me 220th place! It’s going to be nuts being surrounded by runners throughout the entire race, all pushing and working off each other. Seems like it’ll feel like one of those big high school invite XC meets where you can be two-thirds of the way to the finish and still shoulder to shoulder.
Speed Round
Max: I think he’ll be riding that OTQ line so watch those splits closely. He has to average 5:19 per mile to get it done and make it to Atlanta.
Ryan: Watch for him to jump up the rankings late in the race. He’s smart, strong and will likely pass a lot of overzealous carnage. And then, in ultra fashion, he’ll be racing the Across the Years 100 miler less than a month later on January 4, 2020. Pretty standard.
Colton: If he goes out on OTQ pace, he’s either going to lop like 10 minutes off his PR or he’ll totally crater. I can appreciate the gusto. Makes for an exciting story. Of the lot, he had the most calculated buildup.
Me: I’m going to grade myself based on effort level and mental state when things get hard. I’m hoping to run smart early and close well. But honestly, knowing me, I could finish anywhere from 2:30 – 2:50. We shall see my friends.
If anyone’s interested in following along, remember, the race is this Sunday, December 8th, and it starts at 7am PST. Here’s the link to the LIVE TRACKING.
No matter what, I’ll be blowing up social media on Sunday afternoon with the results. Anticipate a gnarly foot shot too as I seem to always get massive blood blisters during road marathons. Wish us luck!
Now, what do you all think? What did I miss? Any outlandish predictions of your own? I know this is localized to Bend but it’s still fun to make predictions based on training numbers alone. Comment below!
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It might be nice to explicitly identify what the acronyms used in article are the first time they are used in a story. It took me a while to understand Olympic Trials Qualifier. And I still don’t know what a MUT is.
Thanks Ryan! Great point, I’ve updated the first paragraph with definitions. MUT-Mountain/Ultra/Trail. It’s a term used to generalize non-road runners.
This is great, Chase. Thanks for including me in the analysis. Let’s take care of business this weekend!
Thanks Ryan! We’ll get it done. 👊
Love the coverage of the local Bend crushers! In the future I think Allison is on Strava – https://www.strava.com/athletes/11505084
Thanks Ryan! And wow, I searched for her like three times, even using her old last name, not sure why I didn’t find her. Thx!!